COVID-19 mortality prediction in the intensive care unit with deep learning based on longitudinal chest X-rays and clinical data.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop deep learning models using longitudinal chest X-rays (CXRs) and clinical data to predict in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: Six hundred fifty-four patients (212 deceased, 442 alive, 5645 total CXRs) were identified across two institutions. Imaging and clinical data from one institution were used to train five longitudinal transformer-based networks applying five-fold cross-validation. The models were tested on data from the other institution, and pairwise comparisons were used to determine the best-performing models. RESULTS: A higher proportion of deceased patients had elevated white blood cell count, decreased absolute lymphocyte count, elevated creatine concentration, and incidence of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease. A model based on pre-ICU CXRs achieved an AUC of 0.632 and an accuracy of 0.593, and a model based on ICU CXRs achieved an AUC of 0.697 and an accuracy of 0.657. A model based on all longitudinal CXRs (both pre-ICU and ICU) achieved an AUC of 0.702 and an accuracy of 0.694. A model based on clinical data alone achieved an AUC of 0.653 and an accuracy of 0.657. The addition of longitudinal imaging to clinical data in a combined model significantly improved performance, reaching an AUC of 0.727 (p = 0.039) and an accuracy of 0.732. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of longitudinal CXRs to clinical data significantly improves mortality prediction with deep learning for COVID-19 patients in the ICU. KEY POINTS: • Deep learning was used to predict mortality in COVID-19 ICU patients. • Serial radiographs and clinical data were used. • The models could inform clinical decision-making and resource allocation.

An automated COVID-19 triage pipeline using artificial intelligence based on chest radiographs and clinical data.

While COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis artificial intelligence models exist, very few can be implemented for practical use given their high risk of bias. We aimed to develop a diagnosis model that addresses notable shortcomings of prior studies, integrating it into a fully automated triage pipeline that examines chest radiographs for the presence, severity, and progression of COVID-19 pneumonia. Scans were collected using the DICOM Image Analysis and Archive, a system that communicates with a hospital's image repository. The authors collected over 6,500 non-public chest X-rays comprising diverse COVID-19 severities, along with radiology reports and RT-PCR data. The authors provisioned one internally held-out and two external test sets to assess model generalizability and compare performance to traditional radiologist interpretation. The pipeline was evaluated on a prospective cohort of 80 radiographs, reporting a 95% diagnostic accuracy. The study mitigates bias in AI model development and demonstrates the value of an end-to-end COVID-19 triage platform.

Artificial intelligence for prediction of COVID-19 progression using CT imaging and clinical data.

OBJECTIVES: Early recognition of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity can guide patient management. However, it is challenging to predict when COVID-19 patients will progress to critical illness. This study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence system to predict future deterioration to critical illness in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: An artificial intelligence (AI) system in a time-to-event analysis framework was developed to integrate chest CT and clinical data for risk prediction of future deterioration to critical illness in patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: A multi-institutional international cohort of 1,051 patients with RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 and chest CT was included in this study. Of them, 282 patients developed critical illness, which was defined as requiring ICU admission and/or mechanical ventilation and/or reaching death during their hospital stay. The AI system achieved a C-index of 0.80 for predicting individual COVID-19 patients' to critical illness. The AI system successfully stratified the patients into high-risk and low-risk groups with distinct progression risks (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Using CT imaging and clinical data, the AI system successfully predicted time to critical illness for individual patients and identified patients with high risk. AI has the potential to accurately triage patients and facilitate personalized treatment. KEY POINT: • AI system can predict time to critical illness for patients with COVID-19 by using CT imaging and clinical data.

Prognostication of patients with COVID-19 using artificial intelligence based on chest x-rays and clinical data: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Chest x-ray is a relatively accessible, inexpensive, fast imaging modality that might be valuable in the prognostication of patients with COVID-19. We aimed to develop and evaluate an artificial intelligence system using chest x-rays and clinical data to predict disease severity and progression in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We did a retrospective study in multiple hospitals in the University of Pennsylvania Health System in Philadelphia, PA, USA, and Brown University affiliated hospitals in Providence, RI, USA. Patients who presented to a hospital in the University of Pennsylvania Health System via the emergency department, with a diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by RT-PCR and with an available chest x-ray from their initial presentation or admission, were retrospectively identified and randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets (7:1:2). Using the chest x-rays as input to an EfficientNet deep neural network and clinical data, models were trained to predict the binary outcome of disease severity (ie, critical or non-critical). The deep-learning features extracted from the model and clinical data were used to build time-to-event models to predict the risk of disease progression. The models were externally tested on patients who presented to an independent multicentre institution, Brown University affiliated hospitals, and compared with severity scores provided by radiologists. FINDINGS: 1834 patients who presented via the University of Pennsylvania Health System between March 9 and July 20, 2020, were identified and assigned to the model training (n=1285), validation (n=183), or testing (n=366) sets. 475 patients who presented via the Brown University affiliated hospitals between March 1 and July 18, 2020, were identified for external testing of the models. When chest x-rays were added to clinical data for severity prediction, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) increased from 0·821 (95% CI 0·796-0·828) to 0·846 (0·815-0·852; p<0·0001) on internal testing and 0·731 (0·712-0·738) to 0·792 (0·780-0 ·803; p<0·0001) on external testing. When deep-learning features were added to clinical data for progression prediction, the concordance index (C-index) increased from 0·769 (0·755-0·786) to 0·805 (0·800-0·820; p<0·0001) on internal testing and 0·707 (0·695-0·729) to 0·752 (0·739-0·764; p<0·0001) on external testing. The image and clinical data combined model had significantly better prognostic performance than combined severity scores and clinical data on internal testing (C-index 0·805 vs 0·781; p=0·0002) and external testing (C-index 0·752 vs 0·715; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: In patients with COVID-19, artificial intelligence based on chest x-rays had better prognostic performance than clinical data or radiologist-derived severity scores. Using artificial intelligence, chest x-rays can augment clinical data in predicting the risk of progression to critical illness in patients with COVID-19. FUNDING: Brown University, Amazon Web Services Diagnostic Development Initiative, Radiological Society of North America, National Cancer Institute and National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering of the National Institutes of Health.

Performance of Radiologists in Differentiating COVID-19 from Non-COVID-19 Viral Pneumonia at Chest CT.

Background Despite its high sensitivity in diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a screening population, the chest CT appearance of COVID-19 pneumonia is thought to be nonspecific. Purpose To assess the performance of radiologists in the United States and China in differentiating COVID-19 from viral pneumonia at chest CT. Materials and Methods In this study, 219 patients with positive COVID-19, as determined with reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and abnormal chest CT findings, were retrospectively identified from seven Chinese hospitals in Hunan Province, China, from January 6 to February 20, 2020. Two hundred five patients with positive respiratory pathogen panel results for viral pneumonia and CT findings consistent with or highly suspicious for pneumonia, according to original radiologic interpretation within 7 days of each other, were identified from Rhode Island Hospital in Providence, RI. Three radiologists from China reviewed all chest CT scans (n = 424) blinded to RT-PCR findings to differentiate COVID-19 from viral pneumonia. A sample of 58 age-matched patients was randomly selected and evaluated by four radiologists from the United States in a similar fashion. Different CT features were recorded and compared between the two groups. Results For all chest CT scans (n = 424), the accuracy of the three radiologists from China in differentiating COVID-19 from non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia was 83% (350 of 424), 80% (338 of 424), and 60% (255 of 424). In the randomly selected sample (n = 58), the sensitivities of three radiologists from China and four radiologists from the United States were 80%, 67%, 97%, 93%, 83%, 73%, and 70%, respectively. The corresponding specificities of the same readers were 100%, 93%, 7%, 100%, 93%, 93%, and 100%, respectively. Compared with non-COVID-19 pneumonia, COVID-19 pneumonia was more likely to have a peripheral distribution (80% vs 57%, P < .001), ground-glass opacity (91% vs 68%, P < .001), fine reticular opacity (56% vs 22%, P < .001), and vascular thickening (59% vs 22%, P < .001), but it was less likely to have a central and peripheral distribution (14% vs 35%, P < .001), pleural effusion (4% vs 39%, P < .001), or lymphadenopathy (3% vs 10%, P = .002). Conclusion Radiologists in China and in the United States distinguished coronavirus disease 2019 from viral pneumonia at chest CT with moderate to high accuracy. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article. A translation of this abstract in Farsi is available in the supplement. ترجمه چکیده این مقاله به فارسی، در ضمیمه موجود است.